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June 19, 2008

Exclusive: Iraq War - Don't Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

KT McFarland

Isn't it extraordinary how quickly the Iraq War has faded from the headlines? Nowadays, the only thing the media covers on Iraq is what happened several years ago - claiming it was a mistake to invade in 2003, that the Bush administration misstated the case for going to war, that the Rumsfeld civilian and military team badly mismanaged the occupation.

Those charges may or may not be true, but we won't know for sure until the historians have taken over from the journalists and politicians in analyzing the early years of the war. The crucial question with Iraq is not what happened five years ago, but what should we do next? What are our options in Iraq going forward?

The only option NOT available is for us to pick up and come home as if the last five years didn't happen. We can't undo the past.The Iraq War isn't like the movie Groundhog Day, where you get to start the day over again and correct the mistakes you made the first time.

So, regardless of what you think about why we're there, or the mistakes we're made while we've been there, we have to look to the future for solutions and not the past for blame. There are no good options left in Iraq, anything we do from immediate withdrawal to open ended commitment to something in between will have ramifications.

But the starting point for any discussion of what we do next should start by a realistic assessment of the situation as it is today, which is dramatically different from what it was just 18 months ago.By sending in more troops with the Surge Strategy, by changing to a different military strategy, and by turning much of the tactical decision making over to the military commanders on the ground, U.S. forces have seen a turn around in Iraq.

There is significant improvement in almost every aspect of the war. During the Rumsfeld era they supported al Qaeda and fought the Americans.But once Secretary Gates and General Petraeus were in place and adopted the Surge Strategy, we were able to bring the Sunnis over to our side. Beginning first in Anbar province, the Awakening movement spread to other regions in Iraq. Recently Prime Minister Maliki directed a joint Iraqi-U.S. offensive in Mosel against the last redoubt of al Qaeda, which had already been driven out of Anbar, Baghdad and Diyala Provinces. al Qaeda in Iraq is all but finished.

The Iraqi army, considered both corrupt and incompetent just three years ago, has now started taking the initiative and shown itself both willing to fight and able to secure victories without the help of American forces.A few weeks ago the Iraqi army went into Basra and drove out the Madhi Army and Iranian-backed Shite militias.The Iraqi army recently entered and occupied Sadr City, once the stronghold of Moqtada al Sadr's Shiite forces. They did it without any American ground forces.

On the political front progress has been slower.But the Iraqi parliament, after dragging its feet for years, has recently passed a de-Bathification law, a pension law, and an amnesty law. Sharing oil revenues has long been a sticking point in Iraq - those regions that have the oil have been reluctant to share with those that don't.But now, for the first time, oil revenue is being distributed to the provinces through the annual budget process.

These successes started small and have multiplied over the last year.And, while Iraq will never be like, say Switzerland, it is finally emerging as a self-governing democracy and will soon be able to stand on its own feet, and American forces can finally come home.

There have been many mistakes in the Iraq war, costing greatly in Americans lives and treasure. Americans are sick of this war, and angry at those who started it.But as much as we'd like, wecannot undo the past, or restore what has been lost.Our only choice is to go forward.As Americans base their decisions on which candidate and which Iraq policy to support, it is important to see things not as they were three four or five years ago, but as they are today.It's just too important an issue to play politics with.The Iraq war is no longer lost, but it is not quite won yet. Americans won't tolerate an open-ended commitment, but they don't want to give up what has been won as such enormous cost. And, as Ambassador Ryan Crocker said in Congressional testimony earlier this year, how we leave Iraq will ultimately be more important than how we got in. The one mistake we don't want to make going forward is to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Family Security Matters Contributing Editor KT McFarland is a former top Pentagon official in the Reagan Administration and a frequent commentator on national security issues and foreign affairs. Feedback: editorialdirector@familysecuritymatters.org.

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